This is the bottom June rainfall obtained in Mumbai in view that 2014, which befell to be a drought year for the entire u . S . Whilst the IMD received just 87.3mm of rain

The town this 12 months experienced its driest June in seven years. The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) base weather station at Santacruz recorded just 252.4mm of rainfall on the grounds that June 1, as of eight.30am on Wednesday, as against the ordinary measure of 493.1mm.

This is the bottom June rainfall obtained in Mumbai seeing that 2014, which came about to be a drought yr for the whole united states of america whilst the IMD acquired simply 87.3mm of rain.

Experts and officials attributed this yr’s sluggish monsoon overall performance to largely three factors. One, loss of low-strain zones inside the Bay of Bengal blended with a ‘weak’ offshore trough inside the Arabian Sea, close to the Konkan coast. When the offshore trough is powerful, the moisture content material in the ecosystem will increase, resulting in greater cloud cover and rainfall. Strong low-pressure systems within the Bay of Bengal then ‘pull’ this moisture from the ocean and deposit it over the Konkan place, and play an critical role in maintaining the strength of offshore troughs.

These low-pressure systems did not form due to the fact meteorological situations over the Bay of Bengal have been no longer favourable. Tropical intraseasonal oscillations, consisting of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), which modulate the formation of those low-strain systems were now not active over the Bay of Bengal, impeding rains not simplest in Mumbai but throughout the state of Maharashtra.

Moreover, on June 22, an east-west wind shear zone developed over the south Konkan location, shifting north-westward towards south Gujarat. This system averted rain-bearing clouds inside the Arabian Sea from coming into inland despite a cyclonic stream which later reinforced right into a low-stress location close to the Konkan coast. “This precipitated heavy rains in parts of the south Konkan, however not over Mumbai and adjoining districts,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and weather exchange) at Skymet Weather, a personal forecaster.

Thirdly, professionals mentioned, that the monsoon low-level jet (MLLJ) which performs a important role in transporting moisture from the Indian Ocean toward the west coast, stored skipping the Indian subcontinent because of an active Southern Hemisphere Equatorial Trough (SHET) and a disturbance within the Eastern Indian Ocean, which deflected the MLLJ axis and hampered the advent of wet winds inside the north Konkan region.

Weather fashions are currently displaying the formation of the season’s first tropical storm over the South China Sea round July 4, which can also then traverse Indo-China passing over Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar before entering the northeast Bay of Bengal round July 6-7. “This hurricane may want to become the season’s first low-stress vicinity over the Bay of Bengal, bringing the primary monsoon surge to the west coast,” stated Abizer Kachawala, an unbiased weather forecaster.

Experts and officials, but, expressed uncertainty over this outcome. “There is still a opportunity of an error with this forecast due to the fact it is round every week away. A low-strain will probably form round July 7, however we aren’t but certain how this may effect rains at the west coast,” said an respectable with the IMD’s regional forecasting centre in Mumbai. This view changed into echoed by unbiased meteorologist Akshay Deoras, who stated, “Extended forecasts are not showing properly rain possibilities after around July 10. Things becomes a whole lot clearer inside the subsequent week. It is a waiting sport as of now.”

BOX:

June rainfall in Mumbai:

2022: 252.4mm (up to eight:30am, June 29)

2021: 961.4mm

2020: 395.Zero

2019: 515.1

2018: 792.Five

2017: 523.3

2016: 697.Four

2015: 1106.7

2014: 87.3

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